West Africa. Rain has reached Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana cocoa areas in amounts slightly less than during recent years. In Côte d’Ivoire, Veriground stations reported 33 mm average per site during the latest 30 days compared to a past amounts of 34 (2020) to 65 (2023) mm, less than the lowest report of the preceding five years by a small margin. Sixty-one of 76 sites reported some rain during the latest 10 days. Rain has been spreading northward. In Ghana, Veriground stations reported 32 mm during the latest 30 days compared to a history of 38 (2022) to 68 (2020) mm. Thirty-three of 47 sites reported some rain during the latest 10 days.
Forecasts see light rain at most sites of Côte d’Ivoire on coming days but slowing on 12 Mar probably briefly. Forecasts for Ghana show less rain soon but expect amounts to increase and spread starting on 12 Mar.
Although rain is returning, the trend toward less rain than in recent seasons means that weather risks are high. The main problem that caused panic during 2024 over the 24/25 crop was low rain in the spring and again during Aug-Sep. A repeat of the 2024 pattern almost certainly will push market expectations toward another deficit in 25/26.
The WMO reports rain at the coast of Nigeria near Lagos (Ikeja) but none at Ibadan or Ondo, the stations closest to the western cocoa area. Residents near Ondo also reported no rain.
Other areas. Rain in Ecuador’s cocoa areas reached all Veriground stations with an average of 72 mm during the latest 10 days and 122 mm during the latest 30 days. One anecdote reported some flooding, but lacked details. The WMO reported that rain at national stations was about one third more than normal in the last week of Feb. Last issue indicated that rain at national stations appears to have been concentrated in Santo Domingo Province, which would explain flooding in that important cocoa area. Peru’s met office reports that rain in the cocoa area has returned to near normal. In Brazil, rain near Bahia’s cocoa was one third more than normal during Feb and rain in Para also was one third more than normal. Rain in Sulawesi has slowed and returned to normal. ENSO. No new information. In its report of early Feb, NOAA expected the current mild La Niña to fade to neutral during Mar-May. Reports tell that NOAA staffing has contracted by 20% due to cuts by the Trump administration.
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