West Africa. Rain continues to return to Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana in amounts typical of recent years. In Côte d’Ivoire, rain slowed slightly with Veriground stations reporting 22 mm average per site during the latest 30 days compared to a range of 24 (2020) to 38 (2021) mm. Thirty-eight of 76 sites reported some rain during the latest 10 days. Most rain has fallen across the center of the cocoa area. In Ghana, Veriground stations reported 35 mm average per site during the latest 30 days compared to 40 mm in 2024 and 31 mm during 2021. Thirty-three of 44 sites reported some rain during the latest 10 days. Rain has been most common westward from the Eastern Region south of Kumasi.
Forecasts see light rain at some sites of Côte d’Ivoire on every coming day and heavier rain reaching most sites on 5 Mar. Forecasts for Ghana are similar with the rain arriving one day earlier.
The WMO reports no significant rain in western Nigeria at Ibadan, the only reporting station for cocoa. A resident near Ondo, also in the western cocoa area, reports no recent rain. The European ERA5 system reports show 30-50 mm in the latest 30 days. This is consistent with Veriground reports for Ghana and might be correct for some areas of Nigeria.
Other areas. Rain in Ecuador’s cocoa areas at national stations has been arriving at typical rates for the season compared to past seasons. Reports from Veriground stations show less and a period of little period during early Feb. Rain at national stations appears to have been concentrated in Santo Domingo Province, which would explain the difference. Peru’s met office reports that rain in the cocoa area has increased to about 70 mm in the latest 30 days compared to an average of 79 mm. In Brazil, rain near Bahia’s cocoa has increased to three-quarters more than normal, 174 mm in the latest 30 days compared to a normal of 100 mm. Rain in Para has followed to 50% above normal, 428 mm compared to 283 mm normal. Rain in Sulawesi has slowed and returned to normal with 342 mm during the latest 30 days compared to 327 normal. ENSO. No change and no new information. In its latest report of early Feb, NOAA expected the current mild La Niña to fade to neutral during Mar-May. The Trump Administration has started discharging NOAA staff.
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