West Africa. Rain has been returning to Côte d’Ivoire in amounts typical of recent years or slightly more. Veriground stations reported 43 mm average per site during the latest 30 days. VG stations at many same sites reported averages of 20-35 mm during the preceding five years 2020-2024. Fifty-three of 75 sites reported rain during the past 10 days. Rain has been most common in the center of the cocoa area and toward Man. Rain at the southwest coast has been low.
VG stations in Ghana reported 46 mm per site during the latest 30 days compared with 22-33 mm during 2020-2024. Stations at 28 of 42 sites reported rain during the past 10 days. Rain has been concentrated in the southern half of the cocoa area. This is normal because rain moves north with the ITZ. A farmer in the northern cocoa area told a VG team installing stations that if rain comes within the next three weeks the summer 2025 crop there will be excellent.
Forecasts see light rain reaching most sites in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana on some day during the coming week. The WMO reports light rain in western Nigeria.
Other areas. Rain in Ecuador’s cocoa areas at Veriground and national stations has been arriving at typical rates for the season. . Peru’s met office reports that rain in the cocoa area has been about half of normal since during Dec-Feb, around 50 mm/mnth compared to 95 mm normally. There have been no reports of a poor crop. In Brazil, Bahia has seen normal rain return after five months of low rain. Rain in Para has jumped to 400 mm during the latest 30 days compared with a normal of 305 mm. Rain during preceding months was close to normal. Rain above 200 mm per month during Dec-May is normal in Para. Amounts of 400 mm in a month during Dec-May happen for a short period during many years. Rain in Sulawesi during the latest 10 days has decreased from the excessive rate of recent months. However, the 30-day total was 500 mm, 45% above normal and a report told that heavy rain since Dec has slowed the crop’s development. ENSO. NOAA expects the current mild La Niña to fade to neutral during Mar-May.
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